Title: "TIA - an OTC story" Author: Taran Sabharwal, founder of the cryptocurrency over-the-counter trading platform STIX Compiled by: Zombiet

Overview of Net New Supply as of October 31, 2024

We use on chain data (via Celerium API) to accurately determine how unlocking dynamics may shape TIA's price trend in November. The above table shows the results, and we have concluded that a total of $92.3 million TIAs will enter circulation after unlocking, which will become the upper limit of overall spot selling pressure.

The $TIA has a 21 day staking period, and those who wish to unlock the trading TIA on October 31st have already released the staking. The total number of unsecured tokens, tokens in the 21 day staking queue, and approximately 24.1 million tokens that have not been counted is equal to 92.3 million TIAs.

This is equivalent to a maximum selling pressure of approximately $460 million. Equally interesting is that this accounts for less than 50% of the total cliff unlocking volume, which means the selling pressure is only half of what people expected.

Another interesting data is that the ratio of the (actual) increase in circulation supply to the current circulation supply is 41.8%.

The first wave of unlocked tokens was sold to OTC (over-the-counter) buyers who hedged on perpetual contracts, resulting in a surge in open interest over the past few months. We expect these large short positions to continue closing, partially offsetting the pressure of spot selling. This capital reset may be a bullish signal for spot buyers.

The assumption in our analysis is that buyers in OTC rounds have 11 million TIA cliff unlocks, which are included in non collateralized buckets (these tokens come from vault wallets and have not been marked on the browser). We have drawn a total of 292 attributed wallets, some of which were not fully drawn. We have included this gap in the non pledged buckets.

History of $TIA OTC on STIX

Undoubtedly, Celestia is one of the most actively traded assets off the exchange during this cycle, mainly because in the early stages of the cycle, it provides an early bullish opportunity for buyers who crave directional trading. Sellers were also incentivized by a large amount of unrealized profits and losses, and did not anticipate the upcoming bull market (Q3 2023).

In the first quarter of 2024, the bull market has matured and the $TIA has risen above $20. At this time, there is very little off exchange trading activity because sellers are unwilling to accept larger discounts (over 40%), and buyers do not want to bid above the upper limit of $8.5. We hardly saw any activity because the seller "feels" wealthy and wants to maintain risk exposure, even if there is an opportunity to achieve investment returns of 100 to 800 times.

When $TIA fell below $5, the situation changed, and this was also the time when the Celestia Foundation began raising $100 million through OTC at a price of $3. The buyer's attribution criteria are the same as those for private investors - unlocking 33% on October 31st (less than 2 months from the round) and linear unlocking for 12 months.

In the third and fourth quarters of 2024, $TIA's over-the-counter trading activity was very active, and sellers unloaded multiple positions. We traded a large quantity of tokens for the first wave of unlocking and the entire unlocking process. As for STIX, the total transaction volume of $TIA since July is approximately $60 million, which may indicate that the actual transaction volume through various liquidity channels is over $80 million (assuming STIX holds 75% of the OTC market share).

summary

Short positions will continue to close until unlocked, and funding rates may be reset to 0 or positive. Those who missed the deadline for releasing their pledge on October 9th may have already released their pledge in October, leading to a further increase in spot supply in November (ready to be sold). In any case, the supply shock is enormous and one of the most widely spread unlocking events of this cycle, coupled with suppressed off exchange trading discounts, may create significant market volatility for the coin.

Related articles: "Even without unlocking, you can still make a profit! Celestia seed round investors can recoup their investment every 3.5 days by staking rewards" "Celestia just announced the completion of a $100 million financing, and institutions are about to unlock it

(责任编辑：银饰)

• ·bga币行情
• ·10月31日华安成长创新混合A净值增长0.29%，近3个月累计上涨16.37%
• ·OKX Ventures、The Open Platform 与 Folius Ventures 联合推出 Telegram Growth Hub，加速器总规模 1000 万美元
• ·trx生态钱包
• ·及贷额度怎么不出来，是有其他原因吗？不是很清楚。
• ·10月31日中欧琪和灵活配置混合A净值下跌0.02%，近1个月累计下跌0.19%
• ·链克钱包私钥-链克钱包私钥是什么
• ·泰康人寿保险赔偿标准是怎样的？有哪些具体规定？
• ·本周 Alpha：9 大市场催化剂 + 稳定币空投攻略
• ·涨停揭秘 | 宝馨科技首板涨停，封板资金4393.66万元
• ·人人贷逾期上征信吗？申请贷款会不会上征信？
• ·中汇集团(00382.HK)完成发行3595.44万股代息股份
• ·职工薪酬支出及纳税调整明细表可以不填吗
• ·什么是经营分部？
• ·民主党投票否决参议院加密货币法案
• ·meme币交易所中国能用么 meme币交易所在中国合法吗