The day of the US presidential election on November 5th is getting closer and closer, and the price of Bitcoin also saw a significant rise last night, returning to the $70000 mark after several months. However, some analysts warn that regardless of the election results, there may be a wave of selling due to profit taking in the days after the election results are announced.

After the election, there is a possibility of a decline

Tyrol Capital's Chief Investment Officer Edouard Hindi stated in an interview with The Block that:

The profit taking after the announcement of the results may lower the price of Bitcoin, but the support below $60000 should still be strong

However, Edouard Hindi added that regardless of the election results, Bitcoin may still regain momentum in the medium term and reach a new high in 2024. On the other hand, Ryan Lee, Chief Analyst of Bitget Research, also pointed out that with the arrival of the US election day, Bitcoin will experience significant growth.

Multiple factors support the potential rise of Bitcoin, especially the expected interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve. The market generally expects a 25 basis point rate cut on November 7th, bringing the interest rate down to the range of 4.5% to 4.75%, reflecting the need for adjustments to stabilize economic growth

Ryan Lee emphasized that the two-day gap between the US election and the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision could have a significant impact on the price of Bitcoin.

The direction of this impact will depend on whether a candidate who supports Bitcoin wins

Other influencing factors of Bitcoin

In addition, Ryan Lee also stated that events including the "Microsoft shareholder vote on whether to invest in Bitcoin" may continue to affect market dynamics after the election.

Microsoft has included "evaluating investments in Bitcoin" on the agenda of its 2024 annual shareholder meeting, which is expected to be held in early December. If the board of directors votes against investing in Bitcoin, it may dampen market enthusiasm and hinder Bitcoin's growth. On the contrary, if Microsoft decides to invest, it may trigger a significant upward trend in the market.

Ryan Lee predicts that the trading price of Bitcoin in the coming week may be between approximately $66000 and $75000, with a confidence level of 70%, while Ethereum may fluctuate within the range of $2350 to $3200. He also pointed out that the improvement in liquidity may increase the activity of altcoins.

(责任编辑：宏观研究)

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